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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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