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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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