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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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