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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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