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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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