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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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