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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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