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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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