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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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