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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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