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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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