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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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