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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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