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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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