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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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