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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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