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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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