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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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