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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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