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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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