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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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