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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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Showing 1526 to 1530 news of total 6871 |
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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