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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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