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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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