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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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