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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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