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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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