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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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