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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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