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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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