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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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