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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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