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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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