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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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