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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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