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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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