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Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
 The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which are 43% lower than in the same period last season. Down from 21 million tonnes of accumulated exports by 23 November 2017 to 11.9 million tonnes by 22 November 2018. A loss of 122 Panamax (75,000 tonnes) or 183 Supramax (50,000 tonnes) loads.
“Tonne mile demand is further hurt as not only are the volumes of US soya bean exports lower than last year, the distances sailed are also much shorter as the new destinations are closer to the US than China is.” Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, says.
The loss of 122 Panamax loads (all destinations) may be downplaying the impact the change in US soya bean exporting patterns is having on the dry bulk shipping industry. By 23 November 2017, 71.3% of all soya bean exports were sent to China, equal to 200 Panamax loads on one of the longest trades in the world. So far this marketing year, China has taken just 2.8% of US soya bean exports, further harming the tonne mile demand generated by US soya bean exports.
“The weaknesses in Panamax and Supramax earnings in recent weeks is likely to be linked to the lower demand for seaborne transportation of US soya bean exports as compared to previous seasons”
In particular Panamax and Supramax vessels are affected given their reliance on the high volumes of US soya beans usually being sent to China at this time of year. The drop in this demand has been one of the factors behind the lack of seasonal upswing in earnings which has been seen in previous fourth quarters. Panamax earnings fell from 14,385 USD/day on 17 October 2018, to 10,996 USD/day on 23 November 2018.
Two biggest importers in Latin America
So far this season only two countries have imported more than a million tonnes of US soya beans, a fraction of the Chinese levels seen in previous seasons. Argentina has gone from no imports of US soya beans at this time last year, to topping the list with 1.21 million tonnes. A remarkable surge but in no way enough to make up for the loss in exports to China. Mexico takes the second sport with 1.18 million tonnes, a 21.6% increase compared to last season.
Despite anecdotal evidence, data from the USDA and backed up by Brazilian customs statistics showed that the US hadn’t exported any soya beans to brazil between the start of the season on 1 September 2018 to 22 November 2018. During the 2017/18 marketing year, the US only exported 100 tonnes of soya beans to Brazil.
Delayed Reaction
Although the 25% tariff on Chinese imports of US soya beans was implemented on 6 July 2018, its effects have only really started to show since the start of the fourth quarter. Last year, 55% of US soya bean exports to China occurred between October and December.
Although US exports to China have dropped by 98% since 1 September compared to the same period last season, total Chinese imports of soya beans in the period from January 2018 to October 2018, have only fallen 0.5%, largely due to increased imports from Brazil. However, the US dominates the soya bean export market in the last quarter of the year, and we are therefore likely to see total Chinese soya bean imports be lower than last year.
“Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war before the end of the year rest on the upcoming G20 summit, but even in the unlikely event that all tariffs are immediately revoked, the trade war may have a long-term effect on trade between the two nations.
As evidenced by China halting imports of US crude oil despite it not being an official part of the trade war, tariffs are not the only factor which have and most likely will continue to harm trade between the two nations.
If Chinese farmers decide they need fewer soya beans to feed their livestock, the overall Chinese demand for soya beans could be permanently reduced, even if tariffs are removed.” Peter Sand ends.
By Peter Sand
in Copenhagen, DK
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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