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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
...
Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
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Showing 1646 to 1650 news of total 6871 |
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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