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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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