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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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