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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 09 August 18
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF REMAINING COAL ASSETS
Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in Queensland, Australia, for $3.95 billion.
According to a noted post ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
CHINA DEMANDS PREMIUM IRON ORE, COAL; MINERS MIXED IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
China’s stricter environmental regulations and structural changes in its steelmaking industry boosts ongoing demand for high-quality iron ore ...
Wednesday, 08 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Singapore's shipyard business has evolved over the decades, from shipbuilding and repairs to rig building. It's now evolving again, to cate ...
Friday, 03 August 18
PHEW! ASIA, EUROPE HEATWAVE PUSHES AUSTRALIA COAL PRICES TO 6-YEAR HIGH: REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have hit fresh six-year highs as a heatwave across the northern hemisphere has triggered a spike in demand for coal- ...
Friday, 03 August 18
HBA HAS RISEN 28.41 PER CENT IN A YEAR TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal has risen 28.41 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels since January 2012.&n ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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