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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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