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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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