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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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