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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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