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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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