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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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