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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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