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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
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