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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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