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Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
 Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with the US-China trade battle prompting us to downgrade our 2019 global GDP forecast, says Fitch Ratings in its new Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
“The trade war is now a reality,” said Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton. “The recently announced imposition of US tariffs on a further USD200 billion of imports from China will have a material impact on global growth and, even though we have now included the 25% tariff shock in our GEO baseline, the downside risks to our global growth forecasts have also increased,” Coulton added.
Our forecasts now encompass the recent significant escalation in US-China trade restrictions, resulting in a 0.2pp reduction in our 2019 China growth forecast to 6.1% and a 0.1pp reduction in our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.1% since the June GEO.
Despite these forecast adjustments, near-term global growth prospects remain strong with growth forecast to reach 3.3% this year, up from 3.2% in 2017, well above the long-run (post-1990) historical average of 2.6% pa.
But growth is also now becoming less balanced and less synchronised. Aggregate demand is accelerating most rapidly in the economy with the smallest margin of spare capacity, namely the US. This is intensifying the divergence of global monetary policy settings and adding to exchange rate volatility. Against the backdrop of an expected shift to global quantitative tightening (QT) next year, the rising cost of funding in US dollars is likely to continue to create pressures for borrowers in global credit markets given the dollar’s outsized role in international financing. This will take a toll on emerging market (EM) growth, where our forecasts have also been downgraded.
One reason for the divergence in growth prospects is fiscal policy, which is aggressively expansionary in the US but much closer to neutral in the eurozone. Our US growth forecast for 2018 has been revised upwards by 0.1pp to 2.9%. But as US near-term prospects improve, it has become clearer that eurozone growth has peaked and our eurozone 2018 growth forecast has seen a further mark down of 0.3pp in this GEO to 2%.
While China’s recent headline GDP growth numbers have held up well – recording 6.7% yoy in 2Q18 – there is increasing evidence of earlier credit tightening measures dampening domestic demand. We do not expect further policy easing to fully offset the drag from new US tariffs and now see China’s growth slowing to 6.1% next year from 6.6% this year. Our aggregate EM growth forecast for 2018 has been revised down by 0.1pp since the last GEO to 5.2% and for 2019 by 0.3pp to 4.8%.
Slowing global growth in 2019 will be accompanied by an important transition in global monetary policy. Fitch now expects the combined QE asset holdings of the four QE central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE) to decline in 2019.
“With the four QE central banks having purchased over USD1 trillion of assets per annum on average since 2009, the prospect of an outright decline in central bank liquidity is likely to have significant ramifications. These could include upward pressures on global bond yields – as the compression of term premiums that followed QE is unwound – and a ratchet up in financial market volatility,” Coulton noted.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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